Hastings Handicapper

Brian McGregor-Foxcroft

Kentucky Derby Preview

01/ 05/ 00 — Vancouver: With less than a week until Post Time, The Kentucky Derby lineup is beginning to thin out a little. There are twenty five contenders left, but you can bet that several more of them will be vetted from the starter’s list. In fact, this is probably the only safe bet you can make on the big event. This will be a wide open race, and we can probably narrow the likely field of possible contenders to the following horses: Fusaichi Pegasus, who has been running very well lately, and is standing at 9-5 on the future book; The Deputy, who it is anticipated will benefit if the former horse fails to come through at the wire, and is standing at 5-1; High Yield, the D. Wayne Lukas runner, whom we can expect to be somewhere in the top mix at the finish line, and is standing at 6-1; War Chant, who, for those who haven’t seen him run, is awesome in the stretch, and who is standing at 8-1; Anees, a horse that a lot of people are watching very carefully, and is standing at 15-1; and Captain Steve, the horse many are favoring as the most live long-shot in the field, and who is standing at 15-1.

Now I will go out on the proverbial "limb," and suggest some horses I believe should not be ruled out completely. I will put War Chant at the top of my list. I’ve seen him run and have bet him several times. He’s always returned my bet with interest. He’s a hard charger in the stretch, even at a distance of

1 1/4Miles. Another possible surprise could be Hal’s Hope, who outran High Yield on one occasion. Globalize may also present us with a nasty surprise at the wire; he might not win, but he could grab a part of the action. Finally, Aptitude may just sneak in for a piece. Whether I’m right or wrong will soon be proven this Saturday. And if people think I’m taking wide open risks in my hunch picks, I would remind them to cast their memories back to last year, when a nobody horse name Charismatic stunned everybody, including me, by winning The Kentucky Derby, The Preakness Stakes, and almost stole the Triple Crown, before he broke down in The Belmont Stakes. But he still ran an awesome third! Regardless of how you bet, have fun handicapping The Derby, as it adds yet another page to the history of the Sport of Kings.

Meanwhile, at Hastings Park things are going along nicely. Attendance is way up this year over last. Everyone seems happy with the size of the fields, and handicapping seems to be more even this year. The track surface is perfect, and the horses are taking to it well. Last year new surface was added, but with the endless, heavy rains it became too deep, and horses were sustaining injuries. This year only some fiber was added, making it extremely fast, while facilitating quick drainage. Friday, April 28^th’s, 8^th race was something very special for me, when the Ed Thompson trained, Nabagail, charged home for a win on first Lasix. She ran well last year until her third race, in which she bled, while still coming up for fifth. You will recall me mentioning her previously, and her ties to Alnaab, the Washington State sire. On Saturday, April 29^th, the day started out well, when the Ron King trained, Super Lucky Me, charged up for a place in the 1^st. race. In the feature race of the day, The Fair Lady, Win A Feu came under the wire first, followed by Chelan, and Makopuna. And the weekend only got better on Sunday, when the Larry Phillips owned, John Van Loon trained, Brass Key, stepped up in class and won the $10,000, 8^th race of the day. But Sunday was a day full of delightful surprises, as one overlooked prospect after another went off at decent odds and rewarded their backers with very satisfactory returns.

Now for some inside information on horses to watch when they next run at Hastings Park. The California claimed Scratcher ran a powerful race on Sunday, April 30^th. Watch for him to move up in class and compete strongly. He is by On Target, BC’s top freshman sire of 1999. Expect Letsgetreditorumbl, who ran fourth in the same race, to do much better on second Lasix. Diamond Ace, who placed in Sunday’s 6^th race, can be expected to improve next out. Keep an eye on Evening Martinis, who came up for a third in Sunday’s 8^th race. He is coming in hand, and demonstrating his versatility running long and short. Artic Halo, who won last Saturday’s 2^nd race, should be watched carefully. And will we see Boldnesian Ruler, the winner of last Saturday’s 6^th race, in The BC Derby? Keep an eagle eye on Iron Kate, who ran a powerful half, before tiring in last Friday’s 8^th race. She will find her level and fire big before this season’s over.

Be especially careful with your handicapping at this time of year, because trainers are dropping some very good horses into low level claiming races in order to find them an easy win, especially if they have not broken their maidens. Also, for you newer handicappers, pay special attention to the distances the horses are running. Is it their best distance, or do they need to go shorter or longer? Keep an eye on the jockeys to see whether they have had good results with certain horses over others. And, above all, keep in mind that Hastings has a bias towards speed horses, especially if that speed is starting from the inside posts. Conversely, if the track comes up wet, favor outside posts for the best possible results.

So there you have it for what it’s worth. Don’t hesitate to drop us an e-mail at our web site [just click ] and let us know whether or not you like the column. Criticism is as welcome as praise. I’ll return after The Kentucky Derby, either with a deep sense of satisfaction, or with egg on face. Either way, may the gods of racing go with you all!

Late Breaking Derby News as at 03/ 05/ 00: A current report has it that High Yield is not taking well to the Churchill surface, while War Chant continues to run well, coming no worse than second in all his starts. Also, some of the post-positions were made known today and are as follows: Globalize PP1; Anees PP2; Aptitude PP3; Wheelaway PP4; Hal’s Hope PP5; Trippi PP6; Deputy Warlock PP7; Captain Steve PP8; War Chant PP9; More Than Ready PP10; The Deputy PP11; China Visit PP12; Commenable PP13; Graeme Hall PP14; Impeachment PP15; Fusaichi Pegasus PP16; Exchange Rate PP17; High Yield PP18; and Curule PP19; Ronton PP20. Word is there will be 20 horses going to the starting gate in The Run for the Roses this Saturday. Take note, that horses starting from the middle gates should have the best shot at positioning themselves to take command in the final _. Best long-shot prospect: Hal’s Hope.