12/ 03/ 01 -- Vancouver: Hastings Park and the fate of BC horse racing is not a problem unique to us alone. In California horseracing is under a state ofsiege as state bred horses are leaving those sun-drenched climes to race in other states throughout the US. In an article published by The Bloodhorse (27/ 02/01), Editor in Chief Ray Paulick writes about the critical situation facing California's racetracks. It would seem that the state government is as indifferent to theate of California racing as BC's provincial and local governments have been to our situation.

California bred horses are finding a ready market in such places as West Virginia and Delaware, where purses are much more generous than those available in California. And why is this the case? Slot machines are the answer. The governor of California last year vetoed a pro-racing bill that would have reversed state racing's dangerous downward slide. Paulick points out that, like BC [comparison mine], California's "huge agribusiness (horse-wise) is in serious trouble." And that if the governor does not reverse his decision on allowing slot machines at race tracks it will eventually take its toll. Does this sound
familiar, Hastings' fans?

While California is plagued by a horse shortage, Great Britain is plagued by a much more destructive foe, an outbreak of foot and mouth disease. All racing was cancelled for several weeks, with some racecourses only now being allowed to resume activity. Even though horses are not directly at risk, they can be carriers. All this on top of a winter of unsettled weather, including floods and furious snow storms, and you can bet your money that British racing willsuffer huge financial reverses for 2001.

I have been analyzing last year's Kentucky Derby to see how the horses ran, and to determine which of the potential entrants in this year's Derby will fit the winning picture.

I start with the winner, Fusaichi Pegasus, who left from Gate 15 and stayed back until the 3/4 call, at which point he began to make his move towards the outside, going seven wide to close in the stretch. Aptitude, the runner up, left from Gate 2, but fell back to 13th position and stayed there until the 3/4 call, at which time he began to surge forward down the stretch, finishing only 1 1/4 lengths behind the Pegasus. Impeachment, leaving from Gate 14, fell back to 19th position, and began a late move in the stretch run. All three horses laid back, avoiding traffic and waiting to make theirbreaks when the leaders tired.

When going 1 1/4 miles you don't want early speed, which was what killed the chances of Hal's Hope, who charged to the lead and held it for a mile before fading to 16th horse under the wire. The same hard driving finished Trippi who chased Hal's Hope for a mile before fading to 11th horse.

So, who fits the picture? Which horses look as though they'll be ideal routers in the next Kentucky Derby?

One horse that loves distance, and shows all the signs of being able to pace himself until the stretch run, is Palmeiro. He sure gave Millennium Wind something to worry about when the two faced off at Santa Anita a few weeks back. More recently, Palmeiro lost to Crafty CT in the San Rafael, but once again it was distance (or the lack of it) that put the former horse at a disadvantage. As Steve Haskin points out in his comments on that race, "He really had no shot to win in the circumstances, and the race should help him move forward in the Santa Anita Derby." I say, give Palmeiro more distance and he'll runa very big race.

Street Cry blew them away in Dubai last weekend, when he won the 1600 Meter UAE Two Thousand Guineas in 1:35.14. This was his first start since the Breeder's Cup Juvenile where he came up for third money. He didn't shy away on that day either, leaving from Gate 9, where he laid back until the 3/4 call and moved up in the stretch overtaking Burning Roma, and finished a 1/2 length behind Point Given, who ran second.

My own feeling on that race was that jockey David Flores did not move soon enough. Another factor which hindered Street Cry's run was his having to go four wide early, and then having to angle eight wide late in the stretch to catch the leaders. Deduct the four wide early and the eight wide late and you might have had Street Cry catching Mucho Uno flat-footed at the wire.

AP Valentine (my spoiler) is the unknown factor in the mix. He bled badly in the Breeder's Cup Juvenile, and tired after the second turn, finishing last in the field. His bleeding problem will have to be taken well in hand, if he is to have a shot at all. Nick Zito, a trainer I respect, will have to come up with some serious solutions before Derby day, or this horse could find himself back in the Allowance ranks before too long. But, let's not sell him too short. He
has the back breeding that could produce big results.

Millennium Wind warrants some attention, in spite of being bested by Fifty Stars' upset win in the Louisiana Derby this last weekend. I have to agree with
Steve Haskin's appraisal of this race, that it's a throw out, considering the fact that Millennium Wind had to go three wide to clear traffic, and given his
chronic foot problems, which will need attending to before Derby day.

So, for me, there is little change from my initial picks, Millennium Wind, Palmeiro, and Street Cry. To reiterate, I'm looking for endurance horses that can lie back, and exhibit closing speed in the stretch run.

Other recent victories in the news are those of Monarchos (Maria's Mon), who cleaned up in the Florida Derby (and now stands as the favorite in the Derby's Future Book), outrunning favorites Dollar Bill and Hero's Tribute. Running eight wide at the half way point, Monarchos, from the 1/2 to the 3/4 poles, covered the distance in: 23.1/5th. He won by 4 1/2 lengths, and covered the final 1/8th in: 12.4/5ths. City Zip, who was expected to run a good race, gave a dull performance.

Also worth mentioning is the solid race run by Horse of the Year, Tiznow, in the Big 'Cap two weeks back. Although the victim of an earlier clinker, Tiznow left no doubt about his status in anyone's mind. However, I have a sneaking hunch (and it's only a gut feeling) that the quarter crack in his hoof will be a factor in his probable early retirement from racing in the near future. He will be more valuable as a sire than as a racehorse, and he really has nothing left to prove to anyone. Wait for it, and remember, you heard it here first!

A late breaking report from Barrettes tells of an In Excess filly, Excessively Unique, breaking down and having to be euthanized after an under tack show prior to the Barretts sale at Fairplex. How sad that consigners have not yet learned from the hard lessons of the past, and still insist on running young horses into the ground before they ever see a race. It makes no economic sense at all to destroy horses before it's even run a race. The trainer himself admitted that under normal circumstances he would not do this with a young horse, but that the market place compels him to comply.

Finally, word came to us about one of Hastings Park's top veteran trainers, Allen Jack, who suffered a heart attack last week. At last report he was resting comfortably in a local hospital and is awaiting tests. We wish Allen Jack a speedy recovery and hope to see him occupying his box seat in the Clubhouse Grandstands once again, and very soon.

Until my next column, good racing to you all.