Brian McGregor-Foxcroft

 

1999 Breeder’s Cup Classic Special

 

29/ 10/ 99—Vancouver: Next weekend, Saturday, November 6^th, is the big Breeder’s Cup Classic from Gulfstream Park, Florida. There are eight feature races on the card, each paying out $1,000,000 or more in purse money. Beyond a doubt, this is the biggest race day of the North American racing year, and, once again this year, there will be Canadian owned and bred horses in some of the fields (fans will recall Frank Stronach’s Awesome Again winning the $5,000,000 Classic last year). From a handicapper’s perspective these races are the toughest to call with any accuracy, but the payouts are often stupendous. For example, Awesome Again, in the Classic, paid out $11.40/ $4.60/ $3.00; Bucks Boy, in the Turf, paid out $9.20/ $5.40/ $4.60; and Da Hoss, in the Mile, paid out a whopping $25.20/ $11.00/ $7.60. You get the idea. Needless to say, it wasn’t necessarily the favorites that got under the wire first. These races require endurance as much as speed from the runners. Jockeys too, are a major factor in handicapping the Breeder’s Cup.

 

Half the fun for me last year was making my own choices after pouring over my advance copy of The Daily Racing Form for a week solid, and in reading the comments of the professional handicappers. After all was said and done, the professionals mostly got it wrong, and only our own Tom Wolski (of Sport of Kings fame) got it right when he tagged Awesome Again as the big finisher in the Classic. I did a little better than the pros, and picked up a few tidy bets in the bargain (in fact, it was one of my better days at the track). So this year I’m going out on the proverbial limb and am publishing my picks for the big event. My choices are made from the handicapper’s two best friends, The Daily Racing Form and the Blood-Horse. I will give you three horses from each race which I think have the best chance of being in the money. You, of course, can and will make your own choices according to your own knowledge and methods (which are every bit as valid as mine). All my selections are based on the advance Daily Racing Form, and whether or not some of my picks are drawn in from the AE  (Also Eligible) lists.

 

Generally speaking, I will avoid picking European horses that have not had a few turns around a North American track. Some of the shippers do have big Beyers, but they are at a disadvantage (as they were last year) against our own N. A. horses. As Mike Watchmaker of the DRF points out: “The totals for Europeans just off the plane in the two Breeder’s Cups at Gulfstream Park are 28 starts, zero wins, one second, and four thirds.” This is food for thought! But, I will make a couple of exceptions to this rule where I believe the Euro-runners are above average, such as Daylami (if he’s drawn in to the Classic, although turf’s his bag). Above all, I am looking for horses on the improve, and not necessarily those that have the biggest Beyers or the most wins.

 

Race 3: The Breeder’s Cup Distaff – 1 1/8th  Miles

 

Banshee Breeze:        With 106 Beyer, and 3-3-1 for 7, I must respect.

Beautiful Pleasure:     Can’t ignore a 113 Beyer, and 1-1-0 for 2 at the distance.

Keeper Hill:               Her 110 Beyer, with 2-2-1 for 5 is impressive.

Silverbulletday:          Like name like horse, Baffert sends her ready, and she did well last year in the Juvenile Fillies event. She could be the spoiler!

 

Race 4: The Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Fillies – 1 1/16^th Miles

 

Chilukki:                   Another Baffert entry who’s flawless with 6 for 6.

Darling My Darling:    Has the Beyers and the bullets to do the job.

Scratch Pad:             She looks intriguing with Beyers on the improve, and is 1 for 1 at the distance, and steady bullets for good measure.

 

Race 5: The Breeder’s Cup Mile – 1 Mile

 

Hawksley Hill:           This 6 year old is in the money more than out, and has a very competitive Beyer of 109. He came up for second in this event last year.

Tuzla:                       Yet another Baffert entry, has been racing well all year. She bounced in her last race at a 1¼, but this race is her preferred distance, and she is 5-0-1 for 6. Girl verses the boys?

Buck’s Boy:               You should have seen him win the BC Turf last year, he was unstoppable, and he enters this event with a competitive 101 Beyer.

 

Race 6: The Breeder’s Cup Sprint – 6 Furlongs

 

Artax:                       Cannot be ruled out with a 123 Beyer and loads of bullets. He is 1-4-0 for 6.

Forestry:                    Is another Baffert entry (this is getting boring) who has 116 Beyer, is 7-1-2 for 10, and has bullets. Impressive!

Lexicon:                     Is a horse I should not back because he’s cost me money in bad bets. What I like is his 120 Beyer, his bullets, and the fact that he’s 2-1-2 for 7 at this distance. He’s consistently in the money if nothing else.

Successful Appeal:      Is the possible spoiler in here, with his 119 Beyer, and the fact that he’s 3 for 3 at this distance.

Falkenburg:                 Is yet another horse that can’t be completely ruled out, with 2 wins for 2 starts at this distance, and a 110 Beyer.

 

Race 7: The Breeder’s filly and Mare Turf – 1 3/8^th Miles

 

Borgia:                       Is the only one who’s had good success at this distance with 2-2-0 for 4. But she’s never run a North American race.

Coretta:                      Has run in N. A. and has a second for 2 at the distance, and a 101 Beyer. This is a wide open race, with one real possibility, and she is

Spanish Fern:              She has 10 lifetime runs and is 5-1-3, with a 103 Beyer. But she has yet to run this distance. However, Chris McCarron rode her to a win at a 1 1/4^th . Robert Frankel sends them out fit!

 

Race 8: The Breeder’s Cup Juvenile – 1 1/16^th Miles

 

Dixie Union:                Looks good. He has the back-breeding (Northern Dancer and Capote), he has the Beyer, 104, and life runs are 4-1-0 for 5.

Captain Steve:            Yes, another Baffert trained horse, has been running well and is 1 for 1 at the distance, with a 95 Beyer.

Kiss A Native:             With a 99 Beyer, and who is 1 for 1 at the distance, could run them all to ground in this race. He’s worth a bet at reasonable odds!

 

Race 9: The Breeder’s Cup Turf – 1 ½ Miles

 

Buck’s Boy:                If he ‘s drawn into this event. He won this last year in the most impressive way. Bet him across the board, and put him on top of the Exacta and Tri.

Daylami:                     It’s here I break one of my cardinal rules and play a British entry. This is one of the most impressive horses to run anywhere, and is 2 for 4 at this distance. If he’s drawn in (?), he could give Buck’s Boy some trouble.

Yagli:                          Is a tough little horse, who, though he may not win, will be with the leaders at the wire. He came up for a second in this race last year, and his run was far better than it looked at the wire. He’s 0-2-0 for 5 at this distance, and has a competitive 99 Beyer.

 

Race 10: The Breeder’s Cup Classic – 1 1/4^th Miles

 

Budroyale:                   Who’s owned by Hastings Park’s Jeff Sengara, could surprise everybody in this one. Jeff claimed him earlier this year, and this horse hasn’t looked back. He comes into this event with a 118 Beyer, and is 0-1-0 for 2 at the distance. He may not win, but I’ll be surprised if he’s not close to the in the money horses at the wire. And you’ll get long odds, because of the anti-Canadian bias on American tracks!

River Keen:                  This is another claimer “who could,” and has. This is a horse on the improve big time, with a 117 Beyer, and who is 2-1-0 for 4 at the distance (and all of these wins very recently). He too will give you decent odds, because everyone else will be betting on Lemon Drop Kid and Vision and Verse at shorter odds. Ignore the concerns about River Keen’s hoof problems, Baffert’s people have this under control, and it hasn’t slowed this horse down yet.

General Challenge:        Should be right up there, if I know the Baffert style, and you can’t argue with a 118 Beyer, and a horse who is 1-0-0 for 2 at this distance.

Daylami:                       Is also on the list for this one (see comments above).

 

Well, there you have it, my picks for the big Breeder’s Cup day at Gulfstream. I do not regard my bias’ as infallible, but if you compare my picks against the DRF, I think you’ll agree, they’re not unreasonable. Whatever you do, and however you bet, have fun – that is the most important part of handicapping. Have a great time and the best of racing luck to you all!